Cambodia maintains a stance of friendship with all countries around the world, including the US, which will be under the leadership of the administration of Donald Trump from next January.

Analysts have suggested that if Trump chooses to focus on the region, ASEAN will face greater pressure from geopolitical competition, particularly within the context of the ongoing geopolitical rivalry between the US and China.

In response to a journalist's question on November 7, Jean-Francois Tain, Minister Delegate attached to the Prime Minister for Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation, stated that Cambodia has no enemies in the world and wants to be friends with all countries, big or small, especially with the world’s major powers, like the US.

He noted that in 2025, diplomatic relations between Cambodia and the US will mark their 75th anniversary, providing an opportunity to strengthen this diplomatic relationship.

Cambodia, as the coordinating country for ASEAN-US dialogue from 2024 to 2027, will seek ways to further strengthen diplomatic ties between the bloc and the US.

“In the special context of the 75-year diplomatic relationship, Cambodia hopes to see even stronger ties between Cambodia and the US,” he said.

However, countries in the region may face increasing geopolitical pressure from the competition between China and the US. The Kingdom may find this especially difficult. Due to its strategically important location in the rivalry for influence among major powers, it will likely face more pressure than other countries, said analysts.

Kin Phea, the director of the International Relations Institute of the Cambodian Institute of Diplomacy and International Relations, said that relations between the US and ASEAN could improve because, at the end of 2019, President Trump wanted to host an ASEAN-US dialogue summit, but due to the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic and the end of his administration, this meeting did not happen. It was later held in Washington under the administration of President Joe Biden in 2022, with Cambodia serving as ASEAN chair.

Phea believed that if the US shifts its focus to the ASEAN region, it will be to continue its policy of countering China, which may be done through engagement with ASEAN. He noted that during Trump's presidency from 2017 to 2021, US influence in ASEAN waned, while China’s influence in the region grew stronger.

“Therefore, I believe Trump may aim to have a stronger policy and relationship with ASEAN. However, it poses a double-edged sword for us and for ASEAN. If he focuses the attention of his administration on the region, it’s likely that ASEAN as a whole, or individual ASEAN member countries, may be forced to choose between China and the US,” he said.

“If that happens, we will be under immense geopolitical pressure. As the traditional expression goes ‘when elephants fight, it is the grass that suffers’. The major powers do not want us to remain neutral; they want us to choose their side,” he added.

Regarding Cambodia's relations with the US, he believed that Trump may take a more positive interest in this relationship because the incoming president has previously written letters in response to former Prime Minister Hun Sen in order to restore relations and trust, and also wanted to establish a working group to handle these affairs.

Phea also observed that Trump is likely not overly concerned about Cambodia’s domestic affairs, and this might improve the relationship. He noted some obstacles in the Cambodia-US relationship.

“The obstacles in Cambodia-US relations that concern human rights, freedom of expression, etc., reflect the different perspectives through different lenses, which cause Cambodia anxiety and are seen by the Cambodian side as interference in domestic affairs,” he explained.

“Another issue is Cambodia’s close relationship with China. The US has often expressed concerns that Cambodia is a client state of China. Another issue is geopolitical competition, because Cambodia is in a strategically sensitive area and may be forced to choose between China and the US,” he continued.

Thong Mengdavid, a researcher at the Asia Vision Institute, pointed out that Trump’s possible foreign policy direction is difficult to predict. He pointed out that Trump’s "America First" policy aimed to prioritise the US and its interests, and even US allies find it hard to predict what his policies might be.

He believed that Trump's engagement with ASEAN would be at a lower level, because the US will likely redirect its attention and resources to other regions. Like Phea, Mengdavid agreed that many US actions in Asia, including in Cambodia, are related to countering China.

“This may lead to increased economic and diplomatic pressure on Cambodia regarding its relations with Beijing, aligned with US efforts to reduce China's influence in the region,” he said.