Russia and North Korea have maintained long diplomatic relations with each other. However, the relations reached their lowest point shortly after Kim Jong Un became North Korea’s supreme leader in 2011, mainly because of the regime’s violation of international law and norms by developing nuclear weapons and testing missiles.

Though Russia still maintained a certain level of relations with Pyongyang, Moscow tried not to show any inclination or support toward North Korea. For instance, Russia was not reluctant in supporting the US resolution in condemning and imposing sanctions against North Korea prior to 2020. In December 2017, Russia supported UNSC resolution 2397 to repatriate North Korean workers abroad as well as the restriction of North Korean exports to foreign countries.

Consequently, the number of North Korean labour migrant workers fell from 30,000 in 2017 to less than 10,000 in 2019. Some analysts also pointed out that Russia was looking for a way to maintain relations with North Korea without breaching international law and norms. This suggests that Moscow viewed North Korea as a liability.

However, Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 turned a new page in its relationship with Pyongyang.

Being isolated and condemned by European and some Asian countries, Russia found North Korea a credible ally during the time of war. In November 2024, Russia and North Korea finalised a mutual defence treaty, putting an obligation on both states to provide military assistance in case of an attack on the other. North Korea also sent troops to fight alongside Russia against Ukraine, reportedly around 14,000 of them. In exchange, Russia has transferred advanced military technology and economic assistance to Pyongyang. It was reported that North Korea benefited to the tune of approximately $20 billion from its military support to Russia’s war.

However, the war how now stretched to more than three years, with both parties eager to end the conflict. This raises the question: Will Russia continue to maintain close relations with North Korea?

The answer is that it is highly unlikely. Being a militarised country meant the Hermit Kingdom was an asset in time of war, however, the relationship may become liability should Russia and Ukraine achieve a peace deal.

First, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has invited various sanctions from the EU, though it has slightly affected Russia’s economic growth.

The sanctions have pushed Russia to become increasingly dependent on China as an export market. Prior to the war, Europe was Russia’s largest market for energy export.

In 2021, Russia exported 49% of its crude oil and 74% of its natural gas to Europe, along with one third of its coal. As its exports to Europe dwindled, China appeared to be the largest destination for Russia’s energy and coal export. By 2025, China imported 44% of Russian coal and 47% of its crude oil exports.

This has allowed China to gain leverage over Russia. This leverage will grow stronger if Russia cannot reduce its dependency on the Chinese market. It should be noted that even though Russia and China have close relations due to sharing a common enemy, there is a deep hostility between the two. Some experts believe Beijing is unhappy with the growing ties between Russia and North Korea, especially when it comes to the transfer of military technology.

In this light, once it achieves a ceasefire, Russia will need to amend its relations with Europe. This could also mean that Russia will need to limit its cooperation with North Korea including the transfer of advanced military technology, which is perceived as violating international law.

In addition, the war has also damaged Russia’s reputation as a responsible superpower. In addition to invading Ukraine, which violated the UN Charter requirement to solve international conflicts peacefully, Russia also strengthened relations with North Korea and consistently votes in favour of North Korea in the UNSC.

This has further isolated Russia and led to condemnation from many countries.

For instance, while the EU raised concerns about the escalating Russia-Ukraine conflict, it also further complicated Russian relations with South Korea and Japan, who are directly impacted by North Korea’s nuclear proliferation and weapon testing.

The transfer of military technology could hardly be ignored by ASEAN countries as the region has long raised concerns about North Korea’s nuclear programme and weapons testing.

More importantly, in addition to affecting Russia’s foreign policy and diplomatic standing, North Korea is a burden. Russia will need to provide economic support and diplomatic assistance to the North Korean regime if it wishes to maintain good relations, while receiving neither economic nor strategic benefit from the relations.

Not only that, any aggressive behaviour of North Korea and its persistence in developing nuclear weapons will be perceived as having connections with Russia.

Although their relations are in their honeymoon period, the marriage of convenience may end the moment Russia and Ukraine reach a peace deal.

Sokvy Rim is a research fellow at the Cambodian Centre for Regional Studies (CCRS). His research interests focus on Cambodia’s foreign policy and its relations with East Asian countries.