North Korean leader Kim Jong-un (left) sits next to Russian President Vladimir Putin in an Aurus Senat limousine that the latter gifted to him while driving on the grounds of the Kumsusan State Guest House in Pyongyang during Putin’s visit. (KCNA)
On June 19, Russian President Vladimir Putin paid an official visit to Pyongyang and held a summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. While the US and other Western countries expressed concerns about the visit, Russia and North Korea have elevated their relations to the level of comprehensive strategic partnership, the highest level of Russian foreign relations. The relationship includes a mutual defence assistance agreement, under which the two nations will provide “military and other assistance by all means at their disposal” in the event of armed aggression from other states.
The treaty will enhance military relations and increase the prospect of the transfer of military technology and weapons between Pyongyang and Moscow. This will further intensify tensions on the Korean Peninsula, as well as escalate Russia’s Ukraine war.
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First and foremost, the military pact could further escalate tensions on the peninsula by encouraging Pyongyang to pursue more dangerous moves. The North Korean regime has become increasingly provocative following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the strengthening of Moscow-Pyongyang relations.
In 2022, North Korea launched a larger number of missiles than ever before, while also building additional guard posts and conducting military drills along its border with South Korea, an action that is considered a violation of the “September 19 Military Agreement." The agreement was aimed at reducing tensions on the peninsula.
Although Kim visited Russia and met with Putin in September 2023, it is believed that his regime has been supplying arms to Russia since 2022. The recent visit, however, resulted in the further shipment of North Korean arms to Russia in exchange for food, fuel, and other modern military technology.
Putin’s visit certainly showcased the deepening of relations between the two countries, but may go beyond mere symbolism. For Pyongyang, the military pact could significantly contribute to North Korea’s confrontational actions against the US, South Korea, and Japan.
In one way, it allows North Korea access to food, fuel, and modern technologies from Russia, thus enhancing North Korea’s military capability. In another, it moves North Korea’s actions into line with Russia’s self-proclaimed struggle against “US pressure, blackmail and military threats”. This may provide the justification the hermit Kingdom needs to pursue more provocative actions.
In addition, the military pact between North Korea and Russia may escalate Russia’s Ukraine war into other regions, including East Asia. Following his visit to Pyongyang, Putin reiterated that Russia may send weapons to the adversaries of Western countries, including North Korea. The mutual defence pact between North Korea and Russia could make Pyongyang a major recipient of Russia’s weapons. Without a doubt, North Korea will be far more dangerous with modern weapons and technology.
Russia is aiming to turn East Asia into another frontline of confrontation, thus diverting the US’ attention from Ukraine to the Korean Peninsula. In this regard, aggressive actions by the North Korean regime would be favourable for Moscow, at least to draw the US attention as well as that of its allies. This probably explains why North Korea is becoming more provocative, including the sending of trash-carrying balloons into South Korean airspace.
The mutual defence agreement has put several other nations in the region on high alert, especially South Korea and Japan. While Tokyo reiterated its “serious concerns” about North Korea military cooperation, Seoul is considering sending arms to Ukraine, and action which Russia has vowed will meet with strong retaliation.
These recent developments will demand more of the US’ attention, diverting its focus on the conflict in Ukraine.
Overall, the military agreement between Russia and North Korea has served to escalate tensions on the Korean Peninsula, while threatening to draw more countries into Russia’s war in Ukraine. This has made the overall geopolitical situation more fraught with danger than ever, especially because it may provoke the Pyongyang regime into a reckless move.
Sokvy Rim is a research fellow at the Cambodian Center for Regional Studies. His research interests focus on Cambodian foreign policy and its engagement with Southeast and East Asian countries. The views expressed are his own.
