In the post-Covid-19 world order, it is unlikely that the US and China can work together to lead the world and are instead more likely to work independently or in conflict to safeguard their respective national interests, according to an analysis by the Cambodian Institute for Cooperation and Peace (CICP).

CICP executive director Pou Sothirak said the US has rolled out its Indo-Pacific strategy while at the same time announcing the establishment of the new Mekong-US Partnership, replacing the moribund Lower Mekong Initiative, seen by many commentators as a direct response to China’s Lancang-Mekong Cooperation mechanism.

He said China has also pressed forward with a re-booted Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and a more direct approach in engaging with a rapidly consolidating “QUAD” – the quadrilateral strategic security dialogue between Australia, India, Japan, and the US, which was first established in 2007 and revitalised in 2017 – and AUKUS, a trilateral security pact between Australia, the UK and US that was announced last year.

Sothirak offered his analysis at a July 27 webinar on the theme of “The Post-Covid-19 World Order: The Dynamics of Potential Sino-US Cooperation.” It was co-organised by the CICP and the China-based South Asia and Southeast Asia International Logistic Research Institute (SSILR) via video conference and in-person in Phnom Penh.

“It is rather difficult to see a reality where the two most powerful nations work together, given the profound resentment between them.

“They are more likely to work independently or in conflict to safeguard their respective national interests while engaging with the states in the region,” he said.

The event aimed to encourage much-needed discourse on areas of potential cooperation between the two great powers of the world. The US and China could spur greater development of infrastructure and reconcile their differences for the greater good of the global community and peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region, he explained.

The event also attempted to examine the development of US-Indo-Pacific Strategy under President Joe Biden’s administration. It had a focus on the question of infrastructure investment and aid policy in ASEAN in general, and in the Greater Mekong Subregion in particular.

The power rivalry between the US and China could easily draw other countries into instability, Sothirak cautioned.

“As Covid-19 fades from the headlines, we are beginning to hear the usual fierce discourse between the two. I think the competition is as real as ever,” he added.

Sothirak said there are some indications that Biden intends to depart in tone, style and process away from his predecessor Donald Trump’s tough stance on China. Biden appears to have a better recalibrated political flexibility and is willing to work with China on issues like global warming, the pandemic, and other human security related issues, he noted.

SSILR president Liu Jinxin, who was in virtual attendance, said a relationship with either China or the US did not have to be exclusive. The two powers should respect the positions of all Greater Mekong countries and should not expect any of them to take sides. Instead, they must respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all the nations in the region.

“Sino-US relationships are characterised by quantum entanglement and will continue to exist for a long time. Mutual cooperation, exclusion and competition – and global and regional peace and stability – all depend on pragmatic cooperation between China and the US rather than unnecessary ideological debate,” Liu noted.

The CICP published a book titled “Cambodia’s Chairmanship of ASEAN” last year, which also discussed the issue in depth.

“The most salient strategic challenge for ASEAN and Cambodia as its chair is to steer ASEAN through the power rivalry between China and the US. Such a rivalry is becoming increasingly apparent in the military domain,” said the book.

“Areas of competition between these two great powers are not only limited to military affairs, however. They cover almost every aspect of foreign policy, including trade, technology, and more recently, the probe into the origin of Covid-19,” it added.