NEW DELHI – The killing of 26 tourists in Kashmir has reignited India-Pakistan tensions, with analysts warning of a possible escalation of hostilities between the two South Asian neighbours, which have gone to war twice before.

India has blamed Pakistan for the April 22 attack on tourists in Kashmir’s Pahalgam, known as “mini Switzerland” for its alpine beauty. The killings shattered a period of relative calm in the restive region and dismayed residents, who depend on tourism for their livelihoods.

In just over 24 hours, New Delhi and Islamabad have downgraded diplomatic ties and expelled diplomats in tit-for-tat moves. New Delhi shut the only land crossing between the two countries, telling all Pakistani nationals with Indian visas to leave India by April 27 and those on medical visas by April 29.

Pakistan declared India’s decision to suspend a six-decade-old river-sharing Indus Water Treaty an “act of war”. It also shut down its airspace for Indian flights, among other measures.

“India-Pakistan tensions are currently at an all-time high,” said Mr Faran Jeffery, deputy director and head of the South Asia terrorism desk at the Britain-based think-tank Islamic Theology of Counter Terrorism.

“Pakistan is also anticipating some kind of military response from India. At least that’s what the indications are right now. Pakistani military is currently on high alert,” he added. “Things are definitely not headed in a very good direction at this time.”

Developments in the two days since the April 22 terror attack appeared to indicate that India could scale up its response, said security expert Dr Srinath Raghavan.

Kashmir is divided between India and Pakistan but claimed in entirety by both sides, with India accusing Pakistan of long fanning a separatist movement and supporting terror groups, a charge denied by Pakistan.

The two have fought two wars and one limited conflict over Kashmir, resulting in thousands killed.

In 2016, India crossed the Line of Control, the de facto border between the two countries, to attack terror targets in response to a strike on an Indian army outpost in the Uri sector of Jammu and Kashmir’s Baramulla district. And in 2019, it launched air strikes on what it claimed was a terror training camp in Balakot in retaliation for a suicide bombing in Pulwama in Kashmir, in which 40 soldiers were killed.

“It would be very difficult (for India) not to respond (to the terror attack). Given that India carried out cross-border strikes in 2016 and air strikes in 2019, it would be difficult to be seen doing something below that threshold this time round,” Dr Raghavan told The Straits Times.

“They have taken preliminary diplomatic steps, which shows they are not in any hurry, signalling domestically and internationally that the response is graduated and measured,” he added.

An uneasy calm settled over the region after the federal government removed a special status for Kashmir in 2019, tightening security to unprecedented levels. The special status had allowed the territory to make its own laws on all matters except finance, defence, foreign affairs and communications.

India, which also fought a limited conflict with Pakistan in 1999, put ties with its neighbour on hold in recent years as it dealt with instability on its northern front with China. Tensions with Beijing have since eased following a border skirmish in 2020.

Now the bloodiest attack in Kashmir in five years – and one which targeted tourists – has dealt a blow to the relative calm on the Line of Control.

“India will identify, track and punish every terrorist and their backers. We will pursue them to the ends of the earth. India’s spirit will never be broken by terrorism. Terrorism will not go unpunished,” Prime Minister Narendra Modi said at a rally on April 24.

Pakistan said on April 24, in response to India’s series of measures, that it will “exercise the right to hold all bilateral agreements with India, including but not limited to Simla Agreement in abeyance”.

The Simla Agreement is a peace treaty that came into force after the 1971 war between India and Pakistan. It provided the blueprint for “good neighbourly relations” and for respecting the Line of Control.

Meanwhile, local people in Kashmir have lamented the economic fallout from this latest attack.

Tourists have rarely been the target of coordinated terror attacks in Kashmir. The federal government had in recent years highlighted growing tourist activities as a sign of returning normalcy.

In Srinagar, the capital of Kashmir, shopkeeper Shiraz Ahmad Mir was among those who took to the streets to protest against the killings.

“Tourists are our guests, and we want to know who were these people who came and killed them. We are deeply anguished by this incident,” said Mr Mir.

In Pahalgam, where the attack took place, taxi driver Bilal Ahmed said he is worried about his livelihood.

“Our heart goes out to those killed,” he said. “If we don’t have tourists, it will be very difficult to run our house. Tourism is our bread and butter. Pahalgam was full of tourists, but now it is empty.”

Dr Noor Ahmad Baba of the politics and governance department at Central University of Kashmir said that what comes next is “a very difficult question”.

He added: “A response seemed to be inevitable. But the damage to Kashmir’s economy is done.”

Asia News Network/The Straits Times